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Last night on Capitol Hill, senior Trump political leaders gathered for a midterm strategy session. It was two hours of data, targeting, and ground game talk.

That’s good.

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But here’s where the America First lens matters most. As we all know, midterms aren’t always friendly to the party in power. It’s gonna be a battle to hold power.

But before we break down what happened, here’s the full rundown from the room:

Mark Halperin:

NEWS

Last night on Capitol Hill, the senior Trump political command briefed its core team on the midterms.

Some of what occurred was previously reported on by @SophiaCai99 of @politico.

Here is a more detailed account, according to one of the attendees at the meeting at the Capitol Hill Club.

The group was served a chicken and steak buffet.

The program went for almost two hours, starting at 530pm.

This was a veteran group, not panicked or shaken. Just focused on the work and the task at hand.

There were about 75-100 people in the room.

Many cabinet members were there, including Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, RFK, Sean Duffy, along with their most senior aides.

The meeting was hosted by Susie Wiles, who spoke briefly.

The pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio presented with about 25 slides on the data on what voters care about — the demographics, the issues, what messages resonate and what do not.

The economy will be THE issue in the election, he said. Messages that break through: Banning stock trading for Congress, transparency on health insurance data (including on pricing and claims reimbursement), lowering prescription drug costs, the Trump tax cuts.

Housing affordability is a huge issue for voters, especially young people.

Taking credit for closing the border does not resonate much.

Men, moderates, true independents, and Hispanic voters are the true persuadable voters.

His message was not pessimistic.

He made recommendations to spend time on podcasts and social media more than national news interviews. Paid media should go on targeted media, not broadcast or even cable.

Facebook is still king for voters, then Instagram and TikTok.

There are currently 6 targeted House races and 7 key Senate races.

The only way Republicans will lose the Senate majority is if Democrats take 50 House seats.

Then political czar James Blair spoke and presented the historical data of how rare it is for a president’s party to not lose a lot of seats in a midterm.

Tennessee 7 special was going to be lost before a huge push for Election Day, from which they have taken lessons about messaging and grassroots.

Trying to argue about wages being up will not help; voters have to feel it, he said.

He acknowledged that Donald Trump will do what he wants to do, say what he wants to say, not be data driven. Everyone else has to stay on message and be driven by the data. In effect, two separate but related campaigns.

They expect Democrats will run in large part on the “Stop Trump” message.

There are a few things here that immediately stand out.

First, the focus on the economy. That’s correct. The midterms will not be decided on Epstein drama or social media fights. They’ll be decided on whether voters feel like they can afford groceries, rent, and gas. You can’t convince people they’re doing well… Biden tried that, and it failed miserably. Americans have to feel it.

Second, there is some good messaging here that will break through the noise. Banning congressional stock trading, health insurance transparency, lowering prescription drug costs, and housing affordability. Those are solid, strong populist issues. This is the stuff that hits regular Americans directly.

But here is the part that might need a little scrutiny.

They expect Dems to run on a “Stop Trump” message. Doubtful.

What Dems actually do in these state and midterm races is way smarter than what they do nationally. They usually don’t run wild-eyed activists in purple districts. They recruit candidates who look and act very “middle of the road.” These candidates usually stay very focused on jobs and healthcare and local issues. They suddenly sound like populists. And this has worked well for Dems. They fool a lot of people.

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Republicans, on the other hand, often assume that pointing out how extreme and batsh*t crazy the left is will be enough to win the race. It rarely works. Because by the time voters step into the booth, the Dem doesn’t look like a radical nut job. They look reasonable.

That’s the trap.

But back to the good stuff. The focus on podcasts and targeted media instead of national television is smart. That’s where persuadable voters actually live now. Facebook still dominating makes sense. It is not flashy, but it’s still a massive juggernaut.

They admitted what we already know: Trump campaigns on instinct and connection. That’s why he wins. He’s not going to morph into some scripted, poll-tested candidate, and honestly, voters wouldn’t buy it if he did. So while he drives the big energy, everybody else has to stay disciplined, organized, and relentlessly focused on the target districts.

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There is a lot of noise out there right now… personal beefs, drama, infighting, and side quests that are a total distraction.

None of that matters if the House flips and the Senate gets even tighter. If we lose control, impeachment is on the table, and the agenda grinds to a screeching halt.

Our goal is to deliver on what voters were promised. That means this has to be an all-hands-on-deck moment, and nobody can sit this one out.

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