Is this the end of Biden?

Interactive Polls:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: NYT/Siena (likely voters)

Dec. 2023
🟦 Biden: 47% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 45%
.
April 2024
🟥 Trump: 47% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 46%
.
June 25
🟥 Trump: 48% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 44%
.
JULY 2
🟥 Trump: 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 43%

Net 8 point swing towards Trump since December and Trump’s largest lead ever in the history of NYT/Siena polls

538: #1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,353 LV | 6/28-7/2

Is it Joever?

More details:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: NYT/
@SienaResearch

Likely voters
🟥 Trump: 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 43% [-1]

It is the largest lead Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015.
——
Registered voters
🟥 Trump: 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 41% [-1]
——
Full field (LV)
🟥 Trump: 42% [+2]
🟦 Biden: 37% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% [+1]
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
–
Full field RV
🟥 Trump: 40% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 33% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10% [+1]
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%

[+/- change vs June 25]
——
Biden (LV)
🟢 Approve: 36%
🔴 Disapprove: 61%
——
538: #1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,353 LV | 6/28-7/2
https://nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html

NY Times:

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Mr. Trump now leads Mr. Biden 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters nationally, a three-point swing toward the Republican from just a week earlier, before the debate. It is the largest lead Mr. Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Mr. Trump leads by even more among registered voters, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and acuity are widespread and growing. A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.

Overall, 74 percent of voters view him as too old for the job, up five percentage points since the debate. Concerns about Mr. Biden’s age have spiked eight percentage points among Democrats in the week since the debate, to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt that way rose to 79 percent, nearly matching the Republican view of the president.

Blood is in the water:

Overall, more voters thought Mr. Biden should remain the Democratic nominee — but only because more Republicans, perhaps emboldened after the debate, said they now want him as their opponent.

Men are leading the charge:

One of the more interesting findings in the poll was that men accounted for virtually all of Mr. Trump’s post-debate gains.

Mr. Trump has made appeals to machismo a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, making his first public appearance after his felony conviction related to paying hush money to a porn star a visit to a U.F.C. fight, for instance.

In the pre-debate poll, Mr. Trump had led among likely male voters by 12 percentage points. After the debate, his lead among men ballooned to 23 points. That movement was particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees.

The TikTok effect:

The debate was watched live by more than 50 million Americans, and 59 percent of voters said they had tuned in. Only 10 percent said they had not heard about the debate, 15 percent said they had heard about it and another 16 percent said they had watched clips afterward.

It was that last cohort, the clip-watchers, whose view of Mr. Biden’s age problem was the most acute, perhaps because some of Mr. Biden’s most incoherent answers quickly went viral.

Around 80 percent of those who watched clips or heard about the debate but did not watch live thought Mr. Biden was too old. Voters who watched the debate live or did not watch at all were in the low 70 percentage range.

A growing generation gap:

When it comes to Mr. Biden’s fitness for another term, 77 percent of Democrats under 45 think the president is too old to be effective, while only 49 percent of those older than 45 agree.

Similarly, 56 percent of Democrats under 45 approve of Mr. Biden’s job, while 90 percent of Democrats older than that rated him positively.

Every try to convince a dementia patient to do anything?

It’s so Joever.

So, so Joever.

Read the rest from the New York Times.