Zohran Mamdani's Chances of Beating Eric Adams, According to Polls

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    Zohran Mamdani Declares Victory In NYC's Democratic Mayoral Primary

    🎙️ Voice is AI-generated. Inconsistencies may occur.

    Zohran Mamdani is the firm favorite to win the 2025 New York mayoral race after he declared victory over Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, according to the betting website Polymarket.

    As of 6 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Mamdani had a 73.6 percent chance of winning the election in November. He was followed by incumbent Mayor Eric Adams on 19.4 percent, and Cuomo on 4.9 percent.

    Newsweek contacted Mamdani, Cuomo and Adams for comment outside of regular workings hours.

    Mamdani and Adams
    Zohran Mamdani speaking to supporters in New York on Tuesday evening, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at the 2025 "Made in NY" Awards earlier this month. Michael M. Santiago/Michael Loccisano/GETTY

    Why It Matters

    Mamdani will be the frontrunner in the November general election as New York City remains a liberal stronghold. The winner of the election will likely become a national figure as the mayor of the largest city in the United States, and play a key role addressing challenges like housing and the cost-of-living in the city.

    For Cuomo, the mayoral race is a chance at a comeback after he resigned as governor in 2021 over a report from Attorney General Letitia James' office that alleged he sexually harassed multiple female employees and created a toxic working environment. Cuomo has denied the allegations.

    What To Know

    On Tuesday night, Cuomo conceded defeat to Mamdani, a 33-year-old Democratic socialist.

    With 93 percent of votes counted, Mamdani led with 43.5 percent of first-place votes to Cuomo's 36.5 percent. The race's ultimate outcome will still be decided by a ranked choice count.

    In May, Cuomo said that he planned to run in November's general election as an independent for the newly created "Fight and Deliver Party," meaning he can still be on the ballot despite losing the Democratic primary.

    "This November, in addition to securing the Democratic nomination, my campaign will work to build the largest possible coalition and secure the biggest possible mandate. We will be responsive to those who want to support my candidacy, but who would like an alternate way to do it," he said last month.

    Adams has also announced that he plans to stand as an independent. It follows backlash over his indictment on corruption charges, and the Department of Justice's subsequent decision to abandon the case. Adams has consistently denied any wrongdoing.

    Several polls conducted prior to the Democratic primary had Cuomo as the favorite. An Emerson College survey of 833 likely voters, conducted between June 18 and 20, gave Cuomo a 35 percent chance of victory, ahead of Mamdani on 32 percent, and Adams on eight percent.

    A YouGov survey conducted for Yale University between June 17 and 23 gave Cuomo 38 percent of the vote, ahead of Mamdani on 28 percent, and Adams on 12 percent. The survey polled 341 likely voters.

    New York mayoral elections use the ranked choice voting system, meaning voters can rank up to five candidates. The candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated in each round, and their votes are redistributed to their supporters' next choice.

    What People Are Saying

    Mamdani said in a speech on Tuesday night: "Tonight, we made history. In the words of Nelson Mandela, 'It always seems impossible until it is done.' My friends, we have done it. I will be your Democratic nominee for the mayor of New York City."

    Cuomo said after conceding defeat: "I want to applaud the assemblyman for a really smart and good and impactful campaign. Tonight is his night. He deserved it. He won."

    New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said on X, formerly Twitter: "Congratulations, Zohran Mamdani! Your dedication to an affordable, welcoming, and safe New York City where working families can have a shot has inspired people across the city. Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system. And you won."

    What Happens Next

    Voters across New York will go to the polls on November 4 to decide the city's next mayor.

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    About the writer

    James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics in Texas, as well as other general news across the United States. James joined Newsweek in July 2022 from LBC, and previously worked for the Daily Express. He is a graduate of Oxford University. Languages: English. Twitter: @JBickertonUK. You can get in touch with James by emailing j.bickerton@newsweek.com


    James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is on covering news and politics ... Read more