Iran and Israel appear set to end their 12-day war, informed Iranian sources have told Amwaj.media. Israel is expected to stop its attacks on Iran at 3.30 am Jerusalem time on June 24, with the anticipation that Iran will shortly follow suit in ceasing offensive military operations. Soon afterwards, the truce will likely transition to a "conclusion" of the conflict, a senior source in Tehran explained. Confusion initially emerged over whether there is an "agreement" between the two sides, which has been denied by some Iranian sources. Notably, Qatar and the US are reported by Axios as having played a key role in mediating the ceasefire, even as the major US base the wealthy Gulf Arab state hosts came under a symbolic Iranian missile strike on June 23.

The rejection of the existence of an accord is likely tied to Iran's insistence that Israel must be the first party to stop firing since it initiated the conflict. There are also political complexities for Iran in forging any formal agreement with a state that it does not recognize. 

In addition, as the extensive ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel since late 2023 on ending the Gaza war have shown, understandings without implementation mean little. Relatedly, Tehran has since the outbreak of conflict on June 13 adopted the principled stance that it will only resume diplomacy with the Donald Trump administration once Israel has ceased its attacks.

Taking to Twitter/X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote, "As Iran has repeatedly made clear: Israel launched war on Iran, not the other way around. As of now, there is NO 'agreement' on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards." He added, "The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later."

If an end to hostilities takes hold, focus will turn to the Iran-US nuclear negotiations. Iranian and American negotiators were slated to hold a sixth round of talks in Oman on June 15, but the diplomatic engagement came to an abrupt halt with Israel’s June 13 surprise attack on Iran. As such, one senior Iranian political insider told Amwaj.media, "One important question is when a sixth round of talks with the US may be held." 

Addressing the Iranian missile strike on Al-Udeid Air Base, Trump on June 23 wrote that "most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further hate. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost..Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same."

Likely concerns in Iran

Any accord to end the conflict with Israel is likely to have detractors in Tehran, particularly given the bloodshed and destruction since June 13. Hundreds of Iranians are reported to have been killed in Israeli airstrikes—including civilians as well as senior military commanders—with residences, factories as well as military and nuclear sites extensively damaged.

Barely two hours before Trump announced the truce, conservative pundit Mahdi Mohammadi wrote, "The pulses of stopping and ending the war, ceasefire, not responding to the blow [inflicted on Iran], and everything else of that nature—from Trump or the [Israeli] regime—are merely deception aimed at surprise and a false gesture aimed at escalating the conflict." Mohammadi, who is an advisor to conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, added, "If we are not smart, we will be hit hard." 

These sentiments indicate concern that Israel has little intention of adhering to the terms of any ceasefire or "conclusion" to its war on Iran, and is mainly maneuvering to use a lull in violence to recover from the ongoing retaliatory Iranian missile barrages—and to potentially further drag Trump into a wider confrontation with Iran.

Meanwhile, some observers charge that Israel may be seeking to replicate its Nov. 2024 truce agreement with Hezbollah, which was forged in the aftermath of devastating Israeli airstrikes that killed the Lebanese movement's top military commanders as well as longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah. That ceasefire deal has been followed by numerous, and ongoing, Israeli airstrikes against alleged Hezbollah operatives and perceived efforts by Hezbollah to rearm or otherwise violate the terms of the ceasefire. 

In the Iranian context, the concern is thus that Israel may seek to arrest bombardment from the Iranian military while using its air superiority to continue operations against perceived missile and nuclear-related activities by Iran. While Israeli media reports have suggested the potential for precisely such a scenario, it would in effect amount to a unilateral truce by Iran—a situation that is unlikely to be tenable.

Trump takes credit

While Iranian sources insist that Israel will initiate a halt to attacks, according to US President Trump it is Iran which will "officially" begin the ceasefire in the early hours of June 24 local time, with the war coming to an end "upon the 24th hour" of the truce. In a post on Truth Social, he added that each side "will remain peaceful and respectful," with the "assumption that everything works as it should, which it will."

Trump further stated that he "would like to congratulate...Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR.' This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!"

Trump's declaration of an expected imminent end to the Iran-Israel war followed an Iranian missile strike on Qatar's Al-Udeid Air Base late on June 23, which hosts US Central Command (CENTCOM). The assault was seemingly symbolic as it was communicated to Washington via third parties beforehand and US forces had been evacuated. Almost all Iranian projectiles were shot down by Qatari forces, and no casualties were reported. While symbolic, the Iranian missile strike was important for political reasons as Tehran had pledged retaliation for the US bombing of three key nuclear sites in Iran early on June 22 local time.

Prior to the Iranian attack on Al-Udeid Air Base, Trump had warned of further escalation if Iran responded to the bombing of the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. “They should make peace immediately. They should stop immediately. Otherwise they’ll get hit again,” Trump said in a brief phone interview ahead of a statement late on June 21 EDT, later warning, “There are many targets left. Tonight’s was the most difficult of them all, by far…but if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.”

Against this backdrop, the symbolic Iranian missile strike seems to have been an integral part of a face-saving path towards de-escalation with the US, in tandem with an effort to end the Iran-Israel war.

Repeating 2020

As Amwaj.media exclusively reported on June 22, Iran received prior notice of the US bombings along with a private communication from the Trump administration that it does not seek a broader conflict. That dynamic suggested that Trump sought a repeat of the events of Jan. 2020, when Iran fired ballistic missiles at evacuated American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.

Back in 2020, Trump opted to absorb the largely symbolic Iranian strike, acknowledging that Tehran needed to save face. However, with the Islamic Republic perceived to be on the backfoot in the face of setbacks in the region—while under an ongoing Israeli attack which has left top military commanders and nuclear scientists dead—some speculated that the US president’s tolerance for an Iranian response may be lower. Those speculations have turned out to be wrong given Iran's careful calibration of its attack on Al-Udeid Air Base.

The announcement of a ceasefire was preceded by Israeli media reports suggesting that Tel Aviv may be ready for a truce if Tehran stops firing missiles, but that Israel and the US could jointly attack economic and energy infrastructure in Iran with the aim of collapsing the Iranian state if the Islamic Republic does not take the offer.

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