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By Zachary Donnini
Changing Coalitions: How Trump Won Last Tuesday
Last Tuesday’s election results surprised many political observers as former President Donald Trump enjoyed significant gains across a diverse coalition of voters. With a roughly 6-point national swing in his favor from 2020, Trump made impressive inroads with several demographics while bolstering his appeal among core supporters. Let’s break down the shifts and trends that defined Trump’s win and what they reveal about possible coalitions for future elections.
This analysis comes a bit early—California has counted only around 60% of its ballots so far, and precinct data that would offer deeper insights into voter choice shifts won’t be available until next month. Still, county and district-level data already reveal valuable trends.
Shifts Among White Voters
One of the most striking shifts towards Trump was among white voters, especially working-class and rural whites. White voters swung notably toward Trump, with working-class whites in suburbs and small cities showing a realignment comparable to 2016. Bucks County in Pennsylvania flipped to Trump (at time of publication), and Macomb County, Michigan, saw a surge in Republican support as well. Trump's success in rural areas was amplified by the increased overall turnout in these regions, giving Republicans a larger proportion of the vote compared to urban centers. For example, in Pennsylvania and Ohio, turnout in rural areas surged, shifting the statewide margin more heavily in Trump’s favor, even in counties with only modest GOP gains.
Democrats hoped to offset anticipated minority losses by gaining among college-educated white voters, but this shift largely didn’t materialize. While a few affluent, highly educated white suburbs in the North shifted slightly Democratic—places like Waukesha, WI; Carmel, IN; Overland Park, KS; and Westerville, OH—this wasn’t enough to counter Trump’s broad appeal among other white groups. Meanwhile, more diverse suburbs like Somerset County, NJ; DuPage County, IL; and Texas’s Collin and Fort Bend counties shifted away from Democrats, reflecting the fact that leftward trend with white well-educated voters couldn’t offset a broader decline among minority voters in those areas.
GOP Gains Among Hispanic Voters
For the second consecutive election, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters increased dramatically. In 2016, Trump’s coalition was almost exclusively white, with nearly 90% of his base identifying as white. By 2024, that number had dropped to around 70-75% (pending on precinct data), with Hispanic voters comprising a significant part of his expanded coalition.
Trump won Hispanic men nationally—a major shift that transformed places like Miami-Dade County, where Clinton won by a 30-point margin in 2016, into a Trump +13 county this year. He also flipped Texas counties like Webb, Hidalgo, and Cameron in the Rio Grande Valley, as well as traditionally Democratic counties in California’s Central Valley and Inland Empire. Even Hispanic communities in northern urban areas such as New York City and Chicago showed increased support for Trump. These shifts suggest that Hispanic voters have solidified their position within the GOP’s coalition, on their way to becoming a crucial swing bloc in national elections moving forward.
Mixed Results with Black Voters
Despite concerns about Black voters potentially switching to Trump, Democrats managed to retain support within this demographic. In fact, Vice President Harris appears to have improved slightly upon Biden’s 2020 performance with Black voters, with predominantly Black counties like Coahoma County, MS, actually shifted towards Harris from 2020.
However, turnout among Black voters remains a challenge for Democrats. Philadelphia’s turnout fell by 5%, with even sharper declines in predominantly Black neighborhoods. This trend persisted despite extensive Democratic investments in ground operations to boost voter turnout. In Pennsylvania’s rural counties, total votes increased by about 2% compared to 2020, but urban centers like Philadelphia did not see a comparable increase, leading to a net disadvantage for Democrats in the state.
Pro-GOP Shifts Among Jewish and Muslim Voters
One of the most surprising outcomes was the simultaneous shift of Jewish and Muslim voters toward Trump, largely due to the ongoing Gaza conflict. In Dearborn, MI—home to the largest Arab-American community in the U.S.—the shift was stark: a Biden +50 margin from 2020 swung to Trump +6, with Jill Stein capturing 18% of the vote. In many precincts in East Dearborn, Harris even placed third behind Stein and Trump, an outcome that might reflect the alienation some Muslim voters felt toward the Democratic Party’s stance on the Gaza conflict.
Jewish voters also turned toward Trump in larger-than-expected numbers, likely influenced by Republicans’ more staunchly pro-Israel stance. In New York’s Hudson Valley, Republican Mike Lawler successfully appealed to Jewish swing voters, and Rockland County (the most Jewish county in America) shifted hard towards Trump at the top of the ticket. The unusual alignment between these two traditionally Democratic groups underscores how foreign policy can drive unexpected electoral shifts.
Pro-GOP Shift Among Asian Voters
Though Asian voters have been a reliable Democratic voting bloc for decades, early results suggest a significant decline in Democratic support among this demographic in 2024. For instance, in New York’s 6th Congressional District—a majority-Asian area in Queens—the margin shifted from Biden +30 in 2020 to Harris +5 this year. Similar trends emerged in Asian communities in New Jersey and California, raising concerns for Democrats as these voters are an increasingly important part of the electorate.
While precinct-level data will offer a clearer picture, initial results suggest that working- and middle-class Asian voters contributed most to the rightward shift, though even affluent Asian communities, such as those in the Bay Area, appeared to lean more Republican than in prior elections.
What These Shifts Mean for Future Elections
Trump’s 2024 win reveals a broader shift in American electoral coalitions. Democrats have traditionally relied on minority voters and white, educated suburbanites, but Trump’s success highlights cracks in that coalition. Hispanic and Asian voters, once considered Democratic strongholds, are moving into swing territory, creating new possibilities for Republican outreach.
Meanwhile, the slight shift among affluent, educated whites toward Democrats suggests they may become a more stable Democratic base in future elections, but only in certain regions. Working-class white voters have solidified their position within the GOP coalition, especially in battleground states with significant rural populations, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
With minority groups like Hispanics and Asians showing substantial swings toward the GOP, Republicans may find themselves better positioned to appeal to a broader, more diverse base in future elections. Whether these shifts represent a lasting realignment or an election-specific phenomenon remains to be seen, but they provide a glimpse into the changing face of the American electorate.
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