Will young men win the White House for President Trump? It’s starting to look that way, thanks to a stunning new poll that shows President Trump making some absolutely incredible gains with young folks. Clearly, most of those votes will come from young men, who are flocking to President Trump in a major way. In fact, their support could be strong enough to offset the impact young women might have in backing Harris, and that’s devastating for Comrade Kamala.
#New General Election poll – Age 18-30
🔵 Harris 51% (+8)
🔴 Trump 43%2020 Results – 🔵 Biden +24
Siena #A+ – 1695 LV – 9/6
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024
To put this into perspective, Biden won that same young demographic by over 20 points.
Even National Review admits this NYT Sienna poll is bad for Harris.
For the most recent New York Times/Siena national poll of the election is out this Sunday morning, and Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally among likely voters — not registered voters, likely voters — by a 48–47 margin. (Forty-eight percent, incidentally, would if true represent a higher share of the vote than Trump received at the ballot box in either 2016 or 2020.) To rehearse a series of presumptions that I assume most readers have long internalized, this is a terrible place for Harris to be in a nationwide poll; the margins are expected to be so close in so many swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, etc.) that she is thought to need something more like a 3 percent lead in the polls heading into election day for her to triumph.
In truth, the youth trend has been in place for a while now. This is from The Center for Politics from about a year ago:
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump among the 18-29 group by roughly 25 points, according to the 2020 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for a variety of news organizations, a different exit poll from NORC at the University of Chicago conducted for the Associated Press and Fox News, and a post-2020 analysis by the Democratic firm Catalist. So it is a bit jarring to see Trump competitive with or even leading Biden among the youngest voters in polls (defined in some polls as 18-29 and others as 18-34). But that is indeed what many of these polls show.
Trump’s been breaking new ground and tilling the soil with young voters for a while now. So the real question is: is he ready to harvest those votes?
And if Trump is really surging with younger voters, we can definitely credit that new media strategy. He’s hitting huge, popular podcasts and reaching a whole new group of young people who wouldn’t be caught dead watching a debate or tuning into cable news. We know Barron’s been giving his dad advice, likely steering him toward the best podcasts.
It could be that these podcasts are far more effective than rallies and will reach that young male voter that could tip the scales for Trump.
The fact is, young women tend to vote in higher numbers than young men, so President Trump has to rally young men to the polls. He needs to engage them and make them care enough to actually cast their vote for him. The good news? His strategy is the smartest way to do just that. Now, if only Joe Rogan would have him on the show—that would be a game changer. And it could happen. Stay tuned.
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