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Some folks argue that President Trump is focusing way too much on a lost cause: the black vote.

They say it’ll take decades to win over black voters, and even then, there’s the challenge of getting these new voters to the polls.

This debate resurfaced when President Trump made an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists’ Convention in Chicago, making it the first time a Republican candidate has attended in the past 20 years. Meanwhile, Kamala didn’t show because she was “too busy”—more likely, they’re hiding the unpopular Veep away like they did Joe back in 2020.

Trump’s attendance at the conference was like walking into the lion’s den, and predictably, so-called “journalists” were up in arms.

This is a very typical reaction from these folks.

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Trump could have walked into the conference and given a car away to everyone in attendance, and they’d still label him the second coming of Hitler.

With that said, as much as we appreciate President Trump’s desire to be the president for everybody and his efforts to lift people out of poverty and increase opportunities, we have to question whether it’s the smartest move before such a crucial election. Trying to sell your winning policies to a community that Dems virtually have in a chokehold might waste time and resources that could be better spent elsewhere, like swing voters in swing states who are overwhelmingly not black.

Now, that’s not to say black Trump supporters aren’t real or that they don’t matter. As pollster Richard Baris recently noted, somewhere between 20% and 35% of black men say they are supporting Trump in the polls. However, as Baris also noted, the numbers indicate they don’t always show up at the polls, which is problematic and explains why black support for Republicans tends to crater in the exit polls. That’s just one reason why chasing the black vote can be a fool’s game. But there’s more—much more, actually. The analysis below is spot-on. Any Republican who tells you we can win by courting the black vote is either clueless or deliberately misleading. Sure, it sounds like a nice idea, but the numbers don’t lie, as Steve Deace clearly demonstrates.

It’s hard to argue with logic like that.

Another very real issue is the rampant cheating that seems to occur in heavily black districts, especially with the onset of mail-in balloting in massive vote sinks like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and the Twin Cities. They can’t stuff those mail-in ballot boxes fast enough, allegedly. Considering the black vote is already a sliver of a sliver, add ballot harvesting and stuffing to the mix, and that sliver shrinks even more. We must focus on securing swing voters in swing states—those are the votes that will lead to victory. Don’t believe us? Take a look at this 2020 article from Politico:

Donald Trump is making modest inroads with Latinos. Polls suggest he’s pulling slightly more Black support than in 2016.

But the president is tilting at the margins with those groups. His bigger problem is the demographic that sent him to the White House — white voters, whose embrace of Trump appears to be slipping in critical, predominantly white swing states.

In Minnesota, where the contest between Trump and Joe Biden had seemed to tighten in recent weeks — and where both candidates stumped on Friday — aCBS News/YouGov survey last week had Trump running 2 percentage points behind Biden with white voters, after carrying them by 7 points in 2016. Even among white voters without college degrees — Trump’s base — the president was farshort of the margin he had against Hillary Clinton.

It’s the same story in Wisconsin, where Trump won non college-educated white women by16 percentage points four years ago but is now losing them by 9 percentage points, according to anABC News/Washington Post poll. In Pennsylvania, Biden has now pulled even with Trump among white voters, according to anNBC News/Marist Poll.

It’s a mistake to think that all those black votes are suddenly up for grabs. Most engaged black voters are Democrats, and the Democrat Party Machine uses endless resources to get them to the polls in events like “Souls to the Polls,” door knocking, and voter drives using text messages and phone calls.

There is no equivalent Republican machine to court young black men who support Trump and who are likely to be less engaged with voter outreach efforts. Sadly, the demographic that is Trump-curious just isn’t that motivated to pull the lever when push comes to shove.

Moreover, the top swing states don’t actually have that many black votes up for grabs. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire do not have a lot of black votes up for grabs. Even the North Carolina electorate is only 21% black. The only swing state with an outsized number of black voters is Georgia.

In truth, this is the “red flag” we need to heed in 2024. We absolutely can’t take Christian and white voters for granted by just assuming they’ll show up and vote how we want them to. If we want to win this extremely crucial election, we must focus on courting white Christians and driving up those turnout numbers into the stratosphere, because those numbers don’t lie either, and they spell a huge victory for us.

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You can watch President Trump’s full appearance at the conference below:

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