Memo: Voter reactions to Biden NATO press conference
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 12, 2024
RE: Voter reactions to Biden NATO press conference
Summary
As the political class seesaws back and forth on the rumor mill, real-time data on voter attitudes provides a critical check on narrative imbalances. This survey, completed a day after President Biden’s much-anticipated NATO press conference, demonstrated the stark reality of the fractured information ecosystem.
While nearly half (45%) of voters heard nothing about the press conference, those who did were far more likely to have heard of two verbal miscues than substance. Roughly six in ten voters who heard about it knew about the Zelensky/Putin miscue (61%) or “Vice President Trump” (58%) while fewer than four in ten had heard of other positive or negative fractions.
Reactions to the press conference were polarized by party on perceptions of competence, with Democrats on net perceiving Biden as more competent after, while independents and Republicans sharply negative.
Perceptions of age were negative across all parties, with Democratic optimism on competence not extending to age.
Methodology: We surveyed 902 likely voters (513 of whom had heard of the press conference) on July 12th. Interviews were conducted via web panel using the Lucid marketplace. The survey was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, race, education, gender, and vote history, and filtered for respondent attentiveness.
What Voters Have Heard:
We asked voters who heard about the NATO press conference what they heard about, providing examples of both positive and negative narratives coming out of the press conference. More than twice as many voters heard about Biden’s two flubs Zelensky/Putin (61% heard of) and Harris/Trump (58%) than heard about any positive narrative. The positive narrative that made the largest impression was Biden’s command of foreign policy details (25%), although this was outpaced by voters saying they heard he was old and frail at the press conference (37%).
Voters polarized and negative on competence, negative on age:
We also asked voters whether the NATO press conference made them see Biden as more or less competent. Unsurprisingly, opinions were polarized by party. Overall, twice as many said the press conference made them see Biden as less competent (51%) as more competent (24%).
When asked if the press conference made them more or less likely to think Biden was too old, or didn’t make a difference, voters overwhelmingly said the press conference made them more likely to see Biden as too old (40%) or didn’t make a difference (52%). Even Democrats said the press conference made them more likely to see Biden as too old.
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