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Just Me Profile picture
@failure1991
Jun 18 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
So time for something a little different. Russian losses /1
The Twitter algorithm is passing me things I normally don't read much and I came across "Killed in Ukraine." It appears to be 1:1 to Mediazona where they trawl everything they possibly can in Russian social media to look for KIA officers. /2x.com/KilledInUkraine
Currently they have 4,258 individual names of which 605 are other ranks. They update more frequently than Mediazona so it will be interesting to see what the result is when they update next /3
Nevertheless once you subtract about 10% from KIU's count you get essentially the same count mediazona has and with some possible discrepancies being that maybe Mediazona does not count men promoted from the ranks /4
I decided though to look at one of their videos showing the war cemetery in Vladivostok. I count 44 across and 5 deep.

What does this mean? /5
Per Mediazona's most recent count the Primorsky Krai's toll of war dead is 991. Which you can see here:

/6zona.media/casualties
Vladivostok is about 1/3 of the Primorsky Krai's population so this seems to confirm the Mediazona count /7
So I can only confirm what Armchair Warlord said here and others have said elsewhere /8
Mediazona is looking for absolutely anything and everyone. What it can find is basically what can be found. There is no hidden mountain of Russian war dead. While not officially advertised, the cost of war, being on Russian social media, is not suppressed /9
It is also therefore high, about 56,000 KIA in over two years of fighting. So when anyone asks why the Russians are willing to negotiate or doubts it, consider the cost /10
Equally please consider that Lvov - which is only 1/6 bigger than Vladivostok and has been relatively insulated from the war had to do this for its war cemetery last year /11economist.com/europe/2023/08…
If Russia's toll is heavy, Ukraine's is something - as I have covered elsewhere - I don't think people can begin to imagine /END

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More from @failure1991

Just Me Profile picture
Jun 11
So I thought I should do a bit of a controversial thread following up on this but not entirely related: namely how the Arab-Israeli wars and two Gulf Wars have warped our sense of what is militarily normal and possible /1
This is going to hurt a lot of sensibilities but the simple fact is that in the latter half of the 20th Century Arab militaries were probably the most incompetent on the planet. They punched well below their weight as well covered in numerous histories /2 Image
Authors like Pollack lean a little too heavily into cultural explanations and trust Israeli sources a little too much but the essential facts remain - highly equipped Arab militaries including ones that trained intensively were consistently bested in lopsided ways /3
Read 21 tweets
Just Me Profile picture
Feb 28
Hi everyone,

There are a lot of people out there, including informed people who follow the war, who can't seem to believe that UKR KIA exceed 100k KIA, at most 150k KIA. They also tend to believe the loss ratio of UKR:RU must be less than 2:1. Here's why I think they're wrong /1
For a start there are the visual data points like all the videos of growing cemeteries in Ukraine - and the drastic expansion thereof confirmed in the UKR press /2
budport.com.ua/news/27275-kab…
Then there is the fact that we know from August 2023 that Ukraine has anywhere between 20,000 - 50,000 amputees. /3wsj.com/story/ukraine-…
Read 20 tweets
Just Me Profile picture
Dec 8, 2023
Ooooh boy. This going to be a whopper and unpopular thread but people have been asking me to explain myself on my unpopular stance on Myanmar and why I support the Tatmadaw (I have many unpopular stances - and I am also just some guy, just me and nothing more). So here goes /1 Image
To radically oversimplify Myanmar is a mostly jungle, resource rich, multi-ethnic and multi-religious country in Southeast Asia full of beautiful vistas but like all places to do with the jungle it has traditionally been underpopulated due to tropical diseases /2 Image
People had many children as they never knew when, or why, the world would claim their children. This pervasiveness of death - mixed with the dominant strain of Therevada Buddhism- led to the predominance of a belief in spirits, augurs and dumb luck as being inescapable... /3
Read 25 tweets
Just Me Profile picture
Nov 1, 2023
Quick thread on the difficulties and travails of Tzahal (AKA the IDF) /1
The terrorist outrage by Hamas on 7 October was rightly shocking and deeply angered Israeli society. People can talk about oppression and intervention or what not but if you go through a Charlie Hebdo, or Bataclan, or a 7/7 you don't care very much about that /2
But what was much more shocking has been the utter fecklessness and often tactical ineptitude of Tzahal. As Kenneth Pollack and others have noted the Middle East balance of power is predicated in large part that Tzahal is the most powerful military in the region /3
Read 15 tweets
Just Me Profile picture
Oct 19, 2023
Concluding thought for the day: Anti-semitism is about to burst out in the open and it won't be put back in the bottle and no one will be inclined to. Why? /1
Well, there have been warning signs for a while. Anti-semitism is deeply ingrained in world society. Jews are a tiny number of people but widely dispersed and also ostensibly at the top of power structures per what many conspiracies push (as a drug supplier pushes something) /2
Being a small minority - and one that is in a Christian or Islamic context at once familiar yet unfamiliar - it is always easy to use Jews as a scapegoat. From scapegoating comes huddling together in fright and in groups presenting "proof" of conspiracy /3
Read 17 tweets
Just Me Profile picture
Jun 17, 2023
Hi everyone,

Apparently it is time for a JM rant because ... why not? 🤷‍♂️

Things are just getting ridiculous at this point with how the Western MSM is describing the UKR counteroffensive (1) Image
Last time I was set off by Rob Lee insouciantly commenting about how the offensive was demonstrating just how much better western equipment was at crew and passenger survivability. This is at best insouciant (2)
But this time it is this "gem" [💩] of an article in The Guardian - which I used to pay good money to subscribe to and read daily - about the UKR counteroffensive, and 'deconstructing' the events of that infamous 'scrum pile' (3)

amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…
Read 18 tweets

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