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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Apr 12 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 9
A step toward victory for Ukraine and a failure for Russia.

The EU has agreed to use Russia's frozen assets to fund weapons and aid for Ukraine

The opposition from Hungary, etc to fund weapons's been overcome. Their "share" will fund humanitarian aid 1/ Image
The deal involves using the estimated €4.4bn windfall profits from €191bn of Russian Central Bank assets held by Euroclear in Brussels. 2/ .reuters.com/world/europe/e…
Belgium, where most of the assets are held, has agreed to consider transferring the collected taxes to Ukraine from 2025. It initially benefited from a 25% tax on the profits. 3/
Read 23 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 8
Imagine that you are a Ukrainian occupied by Russians. Now, you will be conscripted to fight Ukrainian army and die.

This is very cruel but not new. Nazi Germany used it in WW2 in Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics. The difference is that now it is done by Russians 1/
Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian authorities have created the infrastructure necessary to conscript Ukrainians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russia plans to conscript more than 150,000 Ukrainians into the Russian army 2/
We actually have heard similar reports before. In the fall of 2023, there were multiples media reports that Russia will conscript Ukrainians from occupied territories to be used as cannon fodder. The conscription should have taken place until the end of 2023 3/
Read 16 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 8
It is the planting season in Ukraine and tractors are everywhere. I have driven from constantly bombed Kharkiv to the eastern front city-fortress Kramatorsk and this is what I saw 1/
Some of the tractors are old and barely working, others are new and expensive 2/
But why are everywhere, in every field, on every road 3/
Read 7 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 7
This is new in the sea drone warfare in Ukraine

Ukrainians have adapted marine drones to carry air to air Soviet missiles.

Many believe this to be impossible until today, when Russian channels showed evidence 1/ Image
In the video, you can see a Russian helicopter shooting at the Ukrainian marine drone and eventually resorting it. The drone explodes suggesting that it also carried its regular suicide payload.

The drone has one missile missing, which indicates it has fired once 2/
We now should expect a rapid evolution of Ukrainian marine drones to carry other drones, ship missiles, and more air defense. 3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 5
There are three popular arguments behind “de-escalation” doctrine with Russia. All three are wrong

1. Fear of nukes and World War 3

2. The person after Putin could be worse than Putin

3. The entire region might become destabilized. 1/
But first let’s admit the obvious: The US deescalation doctrine doesn’t work.

Think about it! There hasn’t been a single instance of Russia deescalating in response to any action by Ukraine or the West. 2/
The Black Sea gain deal, partial easing of sanctions on energy and agriculture, the U.S. restrictions on Ukraine to strike deep in Russia, delays in supply Ukraine with weapons that it asked for - none of it resulted in deescalation by Russia 5/
Read 30 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 4
Recently, there’ve been reports of the U.S. easing Russian sanctions

Is this a carrot& stick game after the passing the aid? Is this signaling to Russia that the U.S. is willing to “de escalate” if… Or is this a sign of some covert negotiations with Russia?

Specifically, 1/ Image
The reports said that U.S. now allows transactions related to energy with the Russian banks.

The problem is that it is quite misleading.

It is true that the sanctions have been eased relative to the start of the invasion. 2/
But the decision is not new and happened many months ago

What is immediately new is that easing of the sanctions s works through an exemption. And this exemption was set to expire last week. The U.S. renewed it until November. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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