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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks. 5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

13h

Zelensky might be a better diplomat than most think he is.

So far, he is the only one who cut a deal with Trump, held his ground, and recovered from the Oval Office fiasco. 0/

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The plan was: give US firms priority access to aluminium, lithium, graphite, titanium, oil, and gas.

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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15h

Pastor Burns after meeting with Trump: The U.S. will not turn its back on Ukraine. We stand for justice.

Also, State Department: The US is no longer the primary mediator in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. 1/

After meeting with Trump, Pastor Mark Burns said the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom and sovereignty. 2/

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After meeting with Trump, Pastor Mark Burns said the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom and sovereignty. 2/

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For the first time ever, a Ukraine maritime drone shot down a military fighter jet.

Ukraine's Defence Intelligence destroyed a Russian Su-30 air superiority fighter using a Magura maritime drone equipped with anti-aircraft missiles. 1/

On the night of May 2–3, Ukrainian forces deployed naval drones near the Russian fleet base at Novorossiysk.

Russian sources claim one drone launched an R-73 missile, critically damaging a Su-30 fighter. The crew was reportedly rescued by a nearby ship. 2/

Earlier, on December 31, 2024, Ukraine’s DIU Magura V5 missile-equipped marine drone destroyed two Russian Mi-8 helicopters—also a global first. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Q: After the Vatican meeting with Zelenskyy, will peace talks succeed?

J.D. Vance: For 3 years both sides said no peace. Now each has proposed terms. Only Trump got them there. If the war ends, it’ll be because Trump brokered one of the great peace deals of the 21st century. 1/

Q: Why was Mike Waltz let go?

J.D. Vance: He wasn’t. He’s being made UN ambassador—a Senate-confirmed role. That’s a promotion. He reformed the NSC, now Rubio steps in. Trump doesn’t fire people and then promote them. Waltz will serve better at the UN—and I agree. 2/

Q: Was Waltz moved because of the Signal chat?

J.D. Vance: No. Trump told him to clean out disloyal staff at NSC—and he did. Job done. Signal story was a nothing-burger. If Trump wanted to fire him, he would’ve. Instead, he promoted him to the UN. Simple as that. 3/