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Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
@Mylovanov
Apr 12, 2024 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/
Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than "Kinzhal"

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/ Image
2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is 'dire' 4/reuters.com/world/europe/r…
3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/ Image
4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…
Image
5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/
6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Image
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…
Image
7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/
8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…
Image
9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine's energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine's military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/
There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine's toughest test. 14/
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country's allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Image
So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/
Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
Nobody in Ukraine expects peace in 24 hours or 100 days. We have adapted to life next to Russia.

We don’t believe in “memorandums”. We prepare, survive, and fight.

Anne Applebaumʼs fantastic dispatch from Lviv. 1/ Image
At the Lviv Forum, Applebaum asked 200 journalists if Istanbul talks could bring a ceasefire.

No one raised a hand. Some laughed. Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi was asked the same. He answered simply: “No.” 2/
Putin’s advisor Vladimir Medinsky told Ukrainians: “We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

Then he mocked a delegate who lost a nephew. Russia demanded Ukraine retreat from its own land — and threatened more annexations. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
BBC: Trump’s calls with Putin and Zelensky set a positive tone, with Vatican as a host of peace talks. But I think it’s all Russian theatre.

I told BBC: Russia will play the dance of engaging, but it's not open to any ceasefire.

Not 30 days, not 3 days, not 1 day. 1/
BBC asked me: Did you hear any points of pressure from that phone call from the US president to Zelensky?

No, I didn't. But the message from the Russians is clear: they're willing to continue fighting for 5 years, as long as they want. 2/
BBC: Can Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal without mediation?

Me: If Zelensky and Putin get to talk, it's already progress. They haven't spoken since 2019, when they disagreed on Minsk 2 terms.

Russia wanted limits on Ukraine’s sovereignty - Zelensky rejected it 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 21
A key mastermind of Ukraine’s pro-Russian part of the deep state - the one who controlled judges, corrupted courts, and protected the system’s worst - was assassinated today

The evil tried to break Ukraine from within. There is justice in the world

Andriy Portnov was killed
1/
Image
Image
Portonov, 51, was a senior aide to Ukraine's pro-Russian former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted in a 2014 popular uprising, and was killed this morning in Madrid.

He was also sanctioned by the U.S. in 2021 for undermining democratic processes in Ukraine

2/
The U.S. Treasury Department put Portnov on its sanctions list in 2021, saying that he had

"cultivated extensive connections to Ukraine's judicial and law enforcement apparatus through bribery".
3X
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
Putin's Ushakov: Trump told Putin he was deeply impressed by the enormous sacrifice made by Russians to achieve victory in WW 2. 1/ Image
Ushakov: Putin told Trump that attempts to intimidate leaders attending Victory Day celebrations came from those who glorify Nazis. 2/
Ushakov: Putin informed Trump that terrorist threats targeting the Kremlin and Red Square were thwarted on the night of May 7. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
Europe: We saw no evidence of Trump putting pressure on Russia.

Belgium: We are ready to deploy troops to Ukraine.

NATO: It is good Trump is talking to Putin, establishes communication. 0/
High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs Kallas: Brussels saw no evidence of U.S. pressure on Russia during the Ukraine negotiations. 1/
Minister of Defence of Belgium Francken: Belgium is ready to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a coalition of the willing led by France and the UK, immediately after a ceasefire agreement. 2/
Read 4 tweets
Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 20
Good news: The U.S. has restarted conversations on military aid to Ukraine, inclduing Patriots.

Rubio: The U.S. hasn't yet decided whether to approve new military aid to Ukraine. But the U.S. has not stopped weapon deliveries to Ukraine. 1/
Rubio: Ukraine urgently needs additional Patriot air-defense systems, but the U.S. and its allies face shortages.

We can't produce them quickly enough, and ammunition is consumed faster than we can replenish. 2/
Rubio: The U.S. is working closely with NATO allies that possess Patriot batteries to arrange their transfer to Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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