HALEY LOSS ANOTHER REMINDER: GOP CAN’T GO BACK. What does Nikki Haley’s loss in the Republican presidential primaries, a loss in which she gathered a substantial amount of votes but was able to win only in Vermont and Washington, D.C., tell us about the Republican Party? Among other things, it tells us, as if we needed another reminder, that the GOP cannot return to the days of leaders like George W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan.
Some loyal Republican voters have always been uneasy about the style of former President Donald Trump. They felt more comfortable in the GOP world of Bush, McCain, Romney, and Ryan. Even when Trump won the 2016 Republican nomination, and then the presidency, they expressed reservations about his tone or his manner or the “drama” that surrounded him. Trump supporters often mocked those concerns, suggesting that those Republicans were more worried about “mean tweets” than the fate of the nation. But the concerns were real.
In 2024, a lot of those voters were attracted to the candidacy of Haley. She wasn’t entirely old-style — she ran for governor of South Carolina as a Tea Party candidate. But for some Republicans, Haley promised a return to the orderliness of the older Republican Party.
It was an orderliness apparent in the GOP’s line of succession, beginning with Ronald Reagan. After two terms, Reagan’s vice president, George H.W. Bush, became the Republican nominee. To win the nomination, George H.W. Bush defeated a challenger, Sen. Robert Dole. In 1996, the next open nomination race, Dole, the man who finished second the last time, became the GOP nominee. In 2000, the nomination was open again, and the party chose George H.W. Bush’s son, George W. Bush. To win the nomination, George W. Bush defeated a challenger, McCain. In 2008, the next open nomination race, McCain, the man who finished second the last time, became the GOP nominee. To win the nomination, McCain defeated a challenger, Romney. In 2012, the next open nomination race, Romney, the man who finished second the last time, became the GOP nominee.
It was a well-defined way of choosing party leaders, based at times on an actual bloodline and at times on a process of anointing the man who finished second in the previous race. A lot of Republicans took it very seriously. In 2008, when McCain was running, I went to a small campaign event in Columbia, South Carolina. The state had been the site of a particularly rough fight between McCain and George W. Bush in 2000, with Bush emerging as the winner. Then, of course, came eight very hard years: 9/11, the war in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, and an economic collapse. So in 2008, I asked Republicans at the McCain event, all of whom had supported George W. Bush eight years earlier, whether, knowing everything that happened, they would support George W. Bush if they had the 2000 vote to do over again.
All of them said yes, they would vote for George W. Bush again, despite the sometimes disastrous course of his presidency. They explained that they had strongly supported Reagan and then of course had supported Reagan’s vice president, George H.W. Bush. Then there was no question they would support the elder Bush’s son. It was a clear line of blood and politics, and they felt that was the best path for the party.
But cracks were forming in that orderly line of succession. With the victory of Barack Obama and the advent of the Tea Party protest movement, the Republican Party was becoming more populist. A lot of voters without college degrees began to see the Obama administration as ignoring them and their needs. Yes, Romney won the 2012 Republican nomination in the old-style line of succession, but he did it by defeating another candidate, Rick Santorum, who recognized that something was happening in the Republican electorate. Santorum simply couldn’t believe that in a time of growing populist revolt, the GOP would nominate a man who made a fortune in private equity. Indeed, in the 2012 primary race, a lot of Republicans were jumping up and down, waving their arms, and yelling, “We don’t want Romney!” But Romney is what they got.
There was a growing divergence between the party’s leadership and its grassroots. It was a situation ready for a blowup, and that is what Trump delivered in 2016. But it’s important to remember that the Republican Party was changing before Trump came down the escalator.
There’s no need to recount the long and complicated story of the Trump presidency. Suffice it to say that Trump’s self-evident policy successes, among them economic growth, energy, deregulation, the border, foreign affairs, and judicial nominations, made a lot of Republicans happy. Still, some were unhappy with his combativeness, his self-centeredness, his showmanship, and a lot of other qualities not associated with the previous Republican line of succession. Then, of course, came the 2020 election. It is fair to say that every action Trump took after Nov. 3, 2020, led to disaster for himself, the party, and the nation.
Each Republican candidate running in 2024 had to reckon with Trump’s complicated legacy — and then with Trump himself. Some tried to be super Trumpy. Some tried to be anti-Trumps. Some tried to be old school. None succeeded.
All had to recognize one fact: For the GOP, there was no going back. In February 2022, I had a long discussion with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who at that time was clearly thinking about running for president but still had to enact his legislative agenda and win reelection. (He did both in a very impressive fashion.) I mentioned that there were some Republicans who were simply more comfortable with the old style of Republicanism and the old line of succession. I asked DeSantis if he thought there was any going back to that. He laughed. Absolutely not, he said. No way, no how. Despite his loss, he was right.
Indeed, there is not. But there are still those Republicans who are nostalgic for a more orderly GOP. And many of them looked to Haley as their final hope, at least for now, of making that happen. Haley spoke passionately about the “chaos” that surrounds Trump — and indeed, he is a man facing 91 felony counts and all the trouble that entails. She promised a return to a calmer and more disciplined Republican Party. Her problem was that there were not nearly enough Republicans who want that, too. Some love Trump, others don’t love him but like his results, and others think that for all his flaws he is what the GOP needs to fight a Democratic Party dominated by progressive activists. Some would even like to move on from Trump but don’t believe there is another Republican on the scene with the strength and talent to lead the party in a new direction. In any event, Haley has lost, and those supporters who want to change today’s Republican Party will have to wait for new circumstances to bring new leaders.
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