At the start of 2023 DC was at record lows for arrests, prosecutions & detention.
Chief Smith got MPD to make more arrests than they had in years.
Public pressure dragged the USAO to prosecute more cases.
This correlated with big drops in crime in the 2nd half of 2023. (1/
Today's post goes through how on almost every enforcement metric DC was at rock bottom by the beginning of 2023; driven by decreases in arrests and massive decreases in USAO prosecutions.
But there was no political penalty for this deterioration for Mayor Bowser or the USAO. (2/
This deterioration in enforcement meant that DC was uniquely vulnerable to any spike in crime in 2023: (3/
As we all know, crime DID spike in 2023. One contributing factor was the "Kia Challenge" revealing for many kids (& some adults) just how easy it was to get away with crime in DC.
What started as car thefts escalated into robberies and carjackings. (4/
Chief Smith's appointment seems to have shaken things up at MPD & pushed them to a higher arrest rate equilibrium: (5/
"Chief Smith scared the shit out of the white shirts" is how one MPD officer described it.
“So now, instead of white shirts telling people to only answer the radio, they are saying if you see something, do something.”
It looks like this helped tamp down the crime spike. (6/
The arrest data AND the qualitative reporting we're getting out of MPD both point towards Chief Smith engaging in a serious push to break some bad habits within MPD and make the force more proactive: (7/
Notably the surge in arrests-per-office in August (which was a post-COVID record high) corresponds with a dramatic showdown between Chief Smith & the MPD command staff: (8/
While MPD's clearance rates plunged in 2023 as they weren't able to "keep up" with the surge in crime; Chief Smith changed the leadership of the Investigative Services Bureau & clearance rates appeared to be improving in the last months of 2023. (9/
The USAO responded to harsh criticism in 2023 by raising prosecution rates. However they seem to be incredibly selective in when and where they increased prosecution.
There's a huge anomaly in September where prosecutions spiked; conveniently before reported charging data. (10/
The glass-half-full view of USAO prosecutions is that they did bounce back from their rock bottom prosecution rates/volumes in FY 2022.
In January-May they only charged 486 new cases per month while in September-December the USAO charged 714 new cases; a 47% increase. (11/
We don't have very much juvenile prosecution data but the rising juvenile detainee census suggests that the increase in juvenile arrests is translating into more juvenile prosecutions: (12/
We saw that a combination of new leadership (MPD) & sustained pressure (USAO) brought about real increases in arrests & prosecutions that correlate strongly with DC bringing down crime rates in the 2nd half of 2023.
This story of increased enforcement deserves more attention.
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- The average DC homicide suspect has been arrested ~12 times prior, to include violent & gun possession offenses
- Because of USAO non-prosecution, dismissals & plea bargains they only have ~3.1 convictions
- The USAO only secures prior felony convictions against 54% of them (1/
This latest Gun Violence Analysis is well-done & repeats many of the key lessons of the (sadly unheeded) 2021 analysis.
Specifically, many of DC's murderers are being caught for crimes BEFORE the murder & the system is failing to stop them. (2/
The arrest volumes show that MPD is trying to disrupt these highest-risk criminals from engaging in further violence.
But the huge attrition from arrests to actual prosecutions to felony convictions is sadly a very familiar story for people following the USAO in DC. (3/
MPD's Detective pipeline is important. A law enforcement source told me to check this out & compared to NYPD our police department in DC:
- Allocates a much smaller % of officers to detective work
- Solves a much smaller % of crimes
This correlation deserves some attention. (1/
There is a TON of research that shows that allocating more detective resources to crimes increases clearance rates (i.e. solves more crimes). This is intuitive but the data supports the common sense intuition. (2/
We also see some correlation in DC's own data. Over the past few years MPD has shifted $ (which usually correlates with officer hours) out of the Homicide Branch (even when the overall MPD budget grew) & this coincides with decreasing clearance rates. (3/
This story is a microcosm of how our broken prosecution, rehabilitation & safety net ensure police keep interacting with "repeat customers" who continually victimize new people:
- When detectives shared pics of this robbery suspect many officers shared past no-papered arrests (1/
This is from a May 2022 incident where the suspect escalated panhandling into threats.
The @USAO_DC did paper this arrest but proceeded to plea down to simple assault with not even probation; just time served (pretrial) as the sentence. (2/
That plea deal also dismissed August 2022 theft charges that happened while the suspect was on pretrial release. (3/
So many arrests don't result in either meaningful rehabilitation or incarceration because of the operational gaps in USAO, OAG, PSA, CSOSA, USMS & DC's safety net programs.
This "follow through" on arrests deserves more attention. MPD can't fix the downstream agencies. (1/
To their credit, it appears that @USAO_DC & maybe OAG are increasing prosecution rates (after facing public pressure). But while USAO clamors for more sentencing enhancements they often drop or plea down cases to minimal sentences like in this case: (2/
PSA & CSOSA try to enforce release/diversion conditions to get people the treatment they need to be rehabilitated. But when people don't comply all PSA/CSOSA can do it ask for bench warrants that are often ignored. (3/
New post: DC passed a crime bill. What now?
- Research & DC's history show that Hot Spots Policing & Focused Deterrence methods often reduce crime
- MPD knows this but hasn't fully implemented them
- What are the bureaucratic or political barriers to scaling these methods? (1/
Hopefully DC's political class doesn't declare "Mission Accomplished" on crime now that the Council passed @CMBrookePinto 's compromise legislation. She deftly found areas of consensus & removed the Mayor's most harmful/controversial proposals. (2/
While this bill is net positive, tweaks to the law are less impactful than improvements in enforcement. With violent crime up 33% (and the most serious crimes disproportionately hitting DC's poorest areas) we need more serious changes on the ground. Map of Homicides & ADWs (3/
Today's post is a primer for Mayor Bowser's Public Safety Summit tomorrow. This rolls up a lot of the issues we've discussed previously and hopefully we'll hear some new ideas on how the administration is dealing with these topics: (1/
- Policing
- Prosecution
- Prevention
Arrest rate: Each MPD officer is making ~41% fewer arrests than they were pre-COVID, with the largest decreases in police districts 5, 6 & 7 that have more gun violence. How does the administration think about this trend and is this something they are attempting to reverse? (2/
Positioning: MPD’s officer allocations don’t always correlate with where crimes occur. Why doesn't MPD staffing correlate more with crime rates and will MPD’s new strategy involve moving some officers from lower-crime areas to assist in higher-crime areas? (3/