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DC Crime Facts Profile picture
@dccrimefacts
Jan 29 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
- The average DC homicide suspect has been arrested ~12 times prior, to include violent & gun possession offenses
- Because of USAO non-prosecution, dismissals & plea bargains they only have ~3.1 convictions
- The USAO only secures prior felony convictions against 54% of them (1/ Image
This latest Gun Violence Analysis is well-done & repeats many of the key lessons of the (sadly unheeded) 2021 analysis.

Specifically, many of DC's murderers are being caught for crimes BEFORE the murder & the system is failing to stop them. (2/

cjcc.dc.gov/sites/default/…
The arrest volumes show that MPD is trying to disrupt these highest-risk criminals from engaging in further violence.

But the huge attrition from arrests to actual prosecutions to felony convictions is sadly a very familiar story for people following the USAO in DC. (3/
We've seen in other cities that vigorously prosecuting (i.e. not dismissing or downgrading them to misdemeanors) violent offenses & firearm possession can help deter & incapacitate the small number of gang/crew related people that drive homicide trends.

DC needs that now.

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More from @dccrimefacts

DC Crime Facts Profile picture
Dec 5, 2023
MPD's Detective pipeline is important. A law enforcement source told me to check this out & compared to NYPD our police department in DC:

- Allocates a much smaller % of officers to detective work
- Solves a much smaller % of crimes

This correlation deserves some attention. (1/ Image
There is a TON of research that shows that allocating more detective resources to crimes increases clearance rates (i.e. solves more crimes). This is intuitive but the data supports the common sense intuition. (2/

manhattan.institute/article/improv…
We also see some correlation in DC's own data. Over the past few years MPD has shifted $ (which usually correlates with officer hours) out of the Homicide Branch (even when the overall MPD budget grew) & this coincides with decreasing clearance rates. (3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
DC Crime Facts Profile picture
Nov 6, 2023
This story is a microcosm of how our broken prosecution, rehabilitation & safety net ensure police keep interacting with "repeat customers" who continually victimize new people:
- When detectives shared pics of this robbery suspect many officers shared past no-papered arrests (1/ Image
This is from a May 2022 incident where the suspect escalated panhandling into threats.

The @USAO_DC did paper this arrest but proceeded to plea down to simple assault with not even probation; just time served (pretrial) as the sentence. (2/ Image
That plea deal also dismissed August 2022 theft charges that happened while the suspect was on pretrial release. (3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
DC Crime Facts Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
So many arrests don't result in either meaningful rehabilitation or incarceration because of the operational gaps in USAO, OAG, PSA, CSOSA, USMS & DC's safety net programs.

This "follow through" on arrests deserves more attention. MPD can't fix the downstream agencies. (1/
To their credit, it appears that @USAO_DC & maybe OAG are increasing prosecution rates (after facing public pressure). But while USAO clamors for more sentencing enhancements they often drop or plea down cases to minimal sentences like in this case: (2/

PSA & CSOSA try to enforce release/diversion conditions to get people the treatment they need to be rehabilitated. But when people don't comply all PSA/CSOSA can do it ask for bench warrants that are often ignored. (3/

Read 7 tweets
DC Crime Facts Profile picture
Jul 12, 2023
New post: DC passed a crime bill. What now?
- Research & DC's history show that Hot Spots Policing & Focused Deterrence methods often reduce crime
- MPD knows this but hasn't fully implemented them
- What are the bureaucratic or political barriers to scaling these methods? (1/ Image
Hopefully DC's political class doesn't declare "Mission Accomplished" on crime now that the Council passed @CMBrookePinto 's compromise legislation. She deftly found areas of consensus & removed the Mayor's most harmful/controversial proposals. (2/ Image
While this bill is net positive, tweaks to the law are less impactful than improvements in enforcement. With violent crime up 33% (and the most serious crimes disproportionately hitting DC's poorest areas) we need more serious changes on the ground. Map of Homicides & ADWs (3/ Image
Read 46 tweets
DC Crime Facts Profile picture
May 10, 2023
Today's post is a primer for Mayor Bowser's Public Safety Summit tomorrow. This rolls up a lot of the issues we've discussed previously and hopefully we'll hear some new ideas on how the administration is dealing with these topics: (1/
- Policing
- Prosecution
- Prevention
Arrest rate: Each MPD officer is making ~41% fewer arrests than they were pre-COVID, with the largest decreases in police districts 5, 6 & 7 that have more gun violence. How does the administration think about this trend and is this something they are attempting to reverse? (2/ Image
Positioning: MPD’s officer allocations don’t always correlate with where crimes occur. Why doesn't MPD staffing correlate more with crime rates and will MPD’s new strategy involve moving some officers from lower-crime areas to assist in higher-crime areas? (3/ Image
Read 20 tweets

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