What Ron DeSantis Should Have Done in Iowa

Ineffective messaging, missed opportunities, and a dour personality has a promising Republican figure now teetering on the verge of becoming the biggest cautionary tale in U.S. political history.

Taking a head of steam—and some delusions of grandeur—into Iowa a year ago following a resounding re-election victory, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appeared poised to give Donald Trump a tough challenge to the Republican nomination for president. Polls in early 2023 showed DeSantis behind but within striking distance; GOP donors looking for a younger alternative to Trump lined up behind the 44-year-old former congressman with a politically savvy wife and three little ones.

What DeSantis lacked in polish and charisma he made up for with a solid record as governor. During his first term, DeSantis won the enmity of the Left and the media by bucking COVID groupthink sooner than most, taking on wokeism in schools and corporate America, and promoting Florida as the antidote to blue state misery.

But winning battles in Florida did not mean DeSantis was battle-tested enough to prevail on the national stage. As he barnstormed the Hawkeye State throughout 2023, eventually visiting all 99 counties and winning key endorsements including Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, something weird happened—DeSantis started to lose support.

And at the same time his poll numbers headed in the wrong direction, the DeSantis campaign descended into turmoil. The media reported internal drama at Never Back Down, the super PAC seeded with $82 million raised during DeSantis’ re-election campaign, prompting the departure of key officials as 2023 drew to a close.

A blistering New York Times piece published before Christmas described the campaign in hospice mode. “Ryan Tyson, Mr. DeSantis’s longtime pollster and one of his closest advisers, has privately said to multiple people that they are now at the point in the campaign where they need to ‘make the patient comfortable.’”

On the stump with a few weeks until caucus night, the candidate appeared to reflect the behind-the-scenes strife. His aloof persona got pricklier, amplifying his lack of unteachable traits—warmth, empathy, self-deprecation, humor, ability to think fast on your feet—required to attract voters.

So, what could DeSantis have done to avoid the dropping pulse of his future political career?

Waited

This, of course, is the most obvious answer. DeSantis already was the heir apparent to the MAGA throne; by building on his success in Florida and taking on more nationally targeted fights, DeSantis would have marched into Iowa in January 2027 without any competition for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination.

Had he waited, DeSantis now would very likely be the front runner as Trump’s vice president, creating an even greater opportunity for success in 2028.

There were other reasons to wait. As his performance on the campaign trail revealed, DeSantis would have benefitted from some personality ripening. His awkward interpersonal skills did not improve over time. DeSantis is not the first successful executive to flop the humanity test on the national stage but one must wonder if four more years of governing, campaigning, and parenting would have resulted in a more likable version of Ron DeSantis.

Tell the Real Story of COVID in Florida

DeSantis has a compelling story about his handling of the pandemic in the Sunshine State—and a relatable one at that. DeSantis reluctantly followed “expert” advice during the early stages of COVID. He signed executive orders detailing lockdown guidance, embraced the use of masks and social distancing, and promoted the vaccine.

But months into the pandemic, DeSantis not only publicly questioned the efficacy of the mitigation measures but condemned the toll on children and the elderly. Florida opened up quicker than other large states to the north; DeSantis became one of the leaders of the anti-lockdown movement.

Unfortunately, that is not the story DeSantis now shares; his rewrite of COVID history in Florida does not reflect the record. To hear DeSantis tell it, he was the lone voice in the wilderness from the beginning. (He was not.) DeSantis claims he did not embrace “Faucism.” (He did.) DeSantis argues he did not lockdown the state. (He did.)

Without question, Trump deserves harsh criticism for his handling of the pandemic. The White House Coronavirus Task Force empowered Drs. Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, both of whom continue to confess they did not really know what the f*ck they were doing. DeSantis is right to demand a “reckoning” about the irreversible damage done by untested and ineffective lockdowns.

But a reckoning requires truth-telling by everyone responsible—including DeSantis. A more truthful message on COVID would have been this: “Like so many Americans, I believed the ‘experts’ and trusted the ‘science.’ I followed their advice including shutting down businesses and promoting social distancing. As the state with the highest percentage of senior citizens, I wanted to protect them with a vaccine I said would work. But as time wore on, I started to doubt the credibility of the ‘experts’ and the legitimacy of the ‘science’ so we shifted our approach accordingly. But I accept my role in supporting those policies early on.”

Don’t Pretend Tallahassee is Just Like Washington

Admired by a growing base of Republican state voters and protected by strong Republican majorities in the Florida legislature, DeSantis is a popular and effective governor. But Tallahassee ain’t Washington—and DeSantis’ familiar boast of “that’s what we did in Florida” rang hollow in the face of a ruthless federal regime attempting to take down Trump, his supporters in Congress, his longtime associates, and his voters. DeSantis’ refrain sounded naive at best, arrogant at worst.

Which raises his inexplicable timidity on the issue of Department of Justice corruption. Sure, DeSantis said he would fire FBI Director Christopher Wray yet he offered little more in the way of specific reforms. DeSantis, a former prosecutor, rarely mentioned Attorney General Merrick Garland or Special Counsel Jack Smith, instead portraying himself as a victim of the government’s unprecedented legal targeting of the former president as it dominated news coverage of the race.

And his messaging about “fighting for you” didn’t add up on the matter of January 6. Florida by far has the most January 6 defendants—several Floridians have been arrested this month—but DeSantis stubbornly refused to defend his own constituents in the face of abusive, selective prosecution. He instead argued that if the 2024 were about January 6, clearly the campaign strategy of Joe Biden and the Democrats, Republicans would lose.

J6 families often complain that their pleas to DeSantis and his office go unanswered. His social media influencers attempted to deflect from DeSantis’ inaction by suggesting Trump should have issued a blanket pardon for thousands of individuals on nonspecific crimes--an untested and implausible proposal.

Too Late to Resuscitate?

There were other missteps: his rankling dismissiveness of Trump’s key role in elevating his political career, his eagerness to appease the corporate media, and his repellent social media army to name a few. For now, DeSantis is promising to continue the campaign into New Hampshire and South Carolina where he remains way behind in the polls.

Could DeSantis salvage his political future? It has been done, but given his lackluster performance in Iowa, odds are slim.