2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
| pollster | date | Trump | Haley | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Hutchinson | Christie | Scott | Pence | Burgum | Binkley | Hurd | Elder | Johnson | Suarez | Sununu | Pompeo | Noem | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | 51.0 | 19.1 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+29.7 |
| RCP Average | 1/5 - 1/14 | 52.5 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 6.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+33.7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 1/12 - 1/14 | 52 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+33 |
| Emerson | 1/11 - 1/13 | 55 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1/11 - 1/11 | 51 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| NBC News/Des Moines Register | 1/7 - 1/12 | 48 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+28 |
| Suffolk University | 1/6 - 1/10 | 54 | 22 | 13 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+32 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 1/5 - 1/10 | 55 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+41 |
2024 Post-Election Polling Analysis
Why Many Were Correct in Thinking Trump Would Run Away With Electoral College Ken Bensinger & Kaleigh Rogers, New York Times
How America’s Accurate Election Polls Were Suppressed in Front of the Election Matt Tabblit, Racket News
What is Behind the Simmering Information War on Polling Salena Zito, Washington Examiner
Poll Data
| pollster | date | Trump | Haley | DeSantis | Ramaswamy | Hutchinson | Christie | Scott | Pence | Burgum | Binkley | Hurd | Elder | Johnson | Suarez | Sununu | Pompeo | Noem | spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | — | 51.0 | 19.1 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 0.2 | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+29.7 |
| RCP Average | 1/5 - 1/14 | 52.5 | 18.8 | 15.7 | 6.8 | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | 1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+33.7 |
| Trafalgar Group (R)* | 1/12 - 1/14 | 52 | 19 | 19 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+33 |
| Emerson | 1/11 - 1/13 | 55 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1/11 - 1/11 | 51 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| NBC News/Des Moines Register | 1/7 - 1/12 | 48 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+28 |
| Suffolk University | 1/6 - 1/10 | 54 | 22 | 13 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+32 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 1/5 - 1/10 | 55 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+41 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1/6 - 1/8 | 52 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| Morning Consult** | 1/1 - 1/7 | 58 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+43 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 12/18 - 12/19 | 49 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+32 |
| FOX Business | 12/14 - 12/18 | 52 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 3 | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+34 |
| Emerson | 12/15 - 12/17 | 50 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+33 |
| CBS News | 12/8 - 12/15 | 58 | 13 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+36 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 12/8 - 12/13 | 54 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+37 |
| NBC News/Des Moines Register | 12/2 - 12/7 | 51 | 16 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+32 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 12/1 - 12/4 | 45 | 19 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+23 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 11/10 - 11/15 | 54 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+36 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 11/3 - 11/5 | 44 | 15 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 | — | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+26 |
| NBC News/Des Moines Register | 10/22 - 10/26 | 43 | 16 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+27 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 10/6 - 10/10 | 55 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | Trump+38 |
| CBS News | 9/15 - 9/24 | 51 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+30 |
| FOX Business | 9/14 - 9/18 | 46 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | — | Trump+31 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 9/14 - 9/18 | 49 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | — | Trump+33 |
| Emerson | 9/7 - 9/9 | 49 | 7 | 14 | 7 | — | 2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+35 |
| Iowa St./Civiqs | 9/2 - 9/7 | 51 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | Trump+37 |
| NBC News/Des Moines Register | 8/13 - 8/17 | 42 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 0 | — | — | — | Trump+23 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 8/14 - 8/16 | 42 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 0 | — | — | — | Trump+26 |
| NY Times/Siena | 7/28 - 8/1 | 44 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+24 |
| AG/National Research | 7/23 - 7/24 | 42 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+27 |
| FOX Business | 7/15 - 7/19 | 46 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 | — | 0 | 0 | — | 1 | — | — | — | Trump+30 |
| AG/National Research | 7/5 - 7/6 | 44 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+23 |
| AG/National Research | 6/5 - 6/7 | 39 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | Trump+15 |
| Emerson | 5/19 - 5/22 | 62 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 1 | — | 3 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | Trump+42 |
| AG/National Research | 5/9 - 5/11 | 44 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | Trump+18 |
| Cygnal** | 4/3 - 4/4 | 37 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | Trump+7 |
2024 Key Senate Races
Get caught up on the most important polling for the most consequential races of 2024.
Political News & Analysis
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Sins of Omission in PollingBy the author name Salena Zito
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How To Measure Trump's 100 Days?By the author name Byron York
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Another Thing Folks Like About the South: Public Education's RevivalBy the author name Vince Bielski
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Trump's 'First Term Energy'By the author name Waters & Liddell
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Interview With Elon Musk and the DOGE TeamBy the author name Bret Baier
Democrats Talk Change, Few Seem Willing To Make a LeapBy the author name Holly Otterbein
Americans Who Think We're on the Right Track 'Through The Roof'By the author name Harry Enten
McMahon Threatens Newsom Over Transgender AthletesBy the author name Susan Crabtree
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How Los Angeles Is Getting Scorched by Its Homeless ProblemBy the author name Ana Kasparian
Injunction Dysfunction? Trump-Era Judicial Paralysis ExplainedBy the author name Ben Weingarten
Trump Delivers on Reagan's Promise To Dismantle Education DepartmentBy the author name Philip Wegmann
The Only Thing That Will Save Democrats in Age of TrumpBy the author name Mark Penn
Inside and Outside Senate, Democrats Begin To Lose Faith in SchumerBy the author name Dovere & Grayer
Trump Pollster: Tudor Dixon Leads Mike Rogers Among Michigan BaseBy the author name Philip Wegmann
How Biden's Record Crippled the Harris CampaignBy the author name Amie Parnes
A New Beltway Mystery: Follow the Biden EPA MoneyBy the author name James Varney
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Chicago Poll: 80% Disapprove of Mayor Johnson, Crime Top IssueBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
2024 and Harris' Defeat: The Recriminations ContinueBy the author name James Antle
The Vice President Has an X HabitBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Voters Are Reevaluating the Democrats, and They Are FallingBy the author name Mark Penn
Birthright Citizenship Likely To Be Resolved by the Supreme CourtBy the author name Paul Thacker
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VA, NJ 2025 Gov. Results Likely To Mirror National MoodBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
Trump Gets Broad Backing for Illegal Immigration CrackdownBy the author name Terry Jones
'The Realignment': GOP Sen. Hawley To Introduce Pro-Union LegislationBy the author name Philip Wegmann
Gallup: More Democrats Say They Would Like Party To Be More ModerateBy the author name Megan Brenan
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Exclusive: RealClearOpinion Poll, A 2024 Election PostmortemBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
Trump Has Positive Job Approval Amid 'Energetic' Opening WeeksBy the author name Salvanto, et al.
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The Enduring "c"onservative MajorityBy the author name Sean Trende
Trump More Popular Now Than Ever BeforeBy the author name Jonathan Draeger
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The Second Era of Trump BeginsBy the author name Philip Wegmann
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Senate Democrats Fail To Rattle HegsethBy the author name Philip Wegmann
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Trump Calls Fetterman Impressive After Meeting By the author name Salena Zito
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Every Week
The Takeaway
A special edition RCP newsletter that keeps you in the know on all the latest polls this election season.
