Some mighty good IMPORTANT news.

North Carolina tried to shut up a man named Nutt who was criticizing flaws in public works - using math.

Nutt didn't have an Expert "license", so the state threatened to arrest him.

Now Nutt was a trained engineer, but without the blessing. Image
After he retired, among other things, he "testified about an error he discovered in a development plan's calculation of the capacity of a stormwater detention pond."

He testified that the state's stormwater system was "negligently designed". Etc.
The state countered "his testimony about the fluid-flow capacity of the diverter would constitute the unauthorized practice of engineering under the relevant statutory authority."

The Appeal to Authority Fallacy as law!

We see this everywhere in our Expertocracy.
So the state went after Nutt for not holding a piece of paper. NOT for being wrong in his criticism, which apparently was right.

This is how Experts inside the system shut out error, by legal claims critics do not have standing. The do NOT try to defend their errors.
The court weighed in with various technicalities ("professional conduct exceptions" etc.) and about First amendment niceties.

Kicker: "The Court explained that that would allow the government to get a free pass to abridge speech by 'simply imposing a licensing requirement.'"
Recall that they tried this various times with journalism. If you weren't a "professional" reporter, then you couldn't report. Etc.

Of course, many profession have strict entry barriers, like medicine. "Safety First!"
But barring criticism of "doctors" because one is not a physician oneself is a pure and rank Appeal to Authority.

Which we saw many times in the covid panic.

In Nutt's case, the state also cried "Safety First!"
But judge said the state's Board (overseeing engineering) "has failed to demonstrate the link between the ban and its interest in promoting the public welfare and safeguarding property." Image
Judge said "Thus, although the government may properly exercise its interests in policing the use of technical knowledge for nonexpressive purposes, those interests must give way to the nation's profound national commitment to free speech in this case"
Here's the entire opinion.
ij.org/wp-content/upl…

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More from @FamedCelebrity

Dec 6
NZ Leaked Vax Data, my analysis. 🧵

At bottom are links to my blog and SS for the FULL analysis.

I took the data as is. If it's a fraud, or incomplete, so is my analysis.

Thread only highlights the place where there might be a signal, but which is also being misinterpreted.
There is no control group. This data only has people who got at least one shot. Ascribing causation or its strength is not possible. But there might be hints.

Here is a histogram of the number of days until death after getting just 1 shot, just 2, and so on, for those who died. Image
In other words, for those who only got 1 shot, and no more, count the number of days until death. Then plot a histogram of days until death of all such people. Then do the same for those who got just 2 shots, and so on.

Here it gets dicey. Which I will prove to you.
Read 19 tweets
Dec 1
Anybody who uses 'racist' or 'racism' as an accusation is deluded, or ignorant, or addled, or is an ideologue or a bad person.

Some wisdom from the late philosopher David Stove, on "racism". Image
Stove: “'racism' is one of those words which are so perfectly foolish that they are valuable as diagnostics: no sensible person ever uses them, except in quotation marks.”

Next, why you should follow his example. Image
Stove: "Why is 'racism; an utterly foolish word? For the same reason that 'eastism' would be, if we had such a word for the belief that the sun rises in the east. There is no need for a word, and therefore no usefulness in a word, for a belief which everyone knows is true." Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 1
“Over the next century or so, conservative estimates suggest a billion people could die from climate catastrophes, possibly more”

There are 36,525 days in the next century.

Thus, on average 27,379 people have to DIE EACH DAY of "climate catastrophes" for 100 straight years.
If people don't die every day of "climate catastrophes", then they'll have to die in mass numbers on a smaller number of days

For instance, it would take ONE THOUSAND DAYS of ONE MILLION DYING EACH DAY to make one billion "climate catastrophe" deaths.

About THREE YEARS in toto.
If "only" 100,000 die in each "climate catastrophe", then there must be 10,000 days on which ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DIE IN "climate catastrophes".

10,000 days is about 27 years. More than a quarter of the next century will see daily deaths of 100,000

From "climate catastrophes".
Read 5 tweets
May 31
How the worst statistical mistake of all time will doom us.

1. In Griggs v Duke Power Co, the Supreme Court in effect ruled that "discrimination" was henceforth a bad word, and that it could exist even when it did not. Image
2. Lack of Victim group proportion representation -in any activity or organization - became the standard for "proof" of discrimination, even if no person was individually "discriminated against" because he was a Victim.

This is the statistical mistake. Image
3. It's a mistake because even if every Victim and non-Victim where equally capable or tempered, then the chance some employer or group would have non-proportional representation of Victims is high, even if nobody anywhere had any intention of discriminating, and all are equal.
Read 4 tweets
May 13
Besides the rest of this fine thread, falsifiability is a failed philosophy.

1. Actually falsified but beloved or lucrative theories are rarely, or never, given up.

2. Most theories cannot be falsified. Most only say certain outcomes are improbable, not impossible.
A theory must say X is IMPOSSIBLE, and we must observe X, for the theory to be falsified. That can happen, of course, but usually most theories are "fuzzy"; they say "X is NOT LIKELY", not impossible, so when X is observed, the theory is not falsified.
3. It is this fuzziness, which is often formal, and in the form of probability, that saves beloved and lucrative theories from falsification. For the theory lover can always say "The conditions weren't right."
Read 8 tweets
May 12
My friends, the "climate change" scare is great nonsense.

Here is how I know.

We hate credentials & they are the least of my argument. But they impress the uninformed. My BS is in meteorology; my MS is atmospheric physics; my PhD is in math stats, looking at forecast goodness.
I have published in the Journal of Climate, among many other places. I was a forecaster with the National Weather Service. I was on the American Meteorological Society's Probability & Statistics Committee. I was Associate editor of Monthly Weather Review.

Et cetera.
Now all of that is BS. Indeed, I learned that for myself when I began studying models, what they are, what uncertainty means, and why scientists are so confident of theories that routinely crash and burn.

OVER-certainty in all areas of science abounds.
Read 17 tweets

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