Folks, there is drama and questions surrounding the latest round of polling in New Hampshire. Again, the abuse and manipulation of polls certainly occurs on both sides, but the Right continues to be the major purveyors.
There are FOUR polls currently comprising the RCP Average, attached for review. The results range from Trump +14 to Trump +30. Without discussing specifics and dates, there is an argument to be made that Nikki Haley is gaining momentum in the Granite State.
The CBS News Poll (Trump +15) started this speculation and St. Anselm Poll (Trump +14) continued it. There were questions surrounding both these polls, the former being far more moderate than previous recent electorates and the latter surveying Democrats and including them in the sample when the deadline for registered Democrats under the Modified/Semi-Open Primary system has passed.
But ...
“Despite an endorsement from Sununu – whom the poll found enjoys an 80% favorability rating among respondents – and her attempt to thread the needle on abortion, she can’t seem to close the deal.”
Within an hour or so, ARG (American Research Group) released bare bones results showing Haley within 3 points of Trump. Folks, the coordination of messaging with the release of that poll right after the Trump +30 UMass Lowell Poll was released, is very suspect.
UMass Lowell put out crosstabs, a detailed methodology and met basic AAPOR standards of disclosure. The other did not and was pushed by Sununu-friendly media locally and anti-Trump media nationally, to include Mediate and FOX News, outlets which are ignoring the UMass Lowell Poll. Even worse with respect to FOX, the network has standards on reporting on polls, and ARG does not meet them. In others words, they're pushing what they do not consider to be a reputable poll anymore and are breaking their own guidelines for reporting on certain polls.
This is very clearly intended to benefit Nikki Haley.
Some actors are just bad actors, but others legitimately need to learn how to smell bullshit when it's right under their nose. From where I am standing, it stinks to High Heaven.
I feel like tearing off my clothes and dancing in the rain (snow on Tuesday). Ofc I'm entirely too old to do that. But...
We were SO right.
Here's Snoop, who rapped "F--K Donald Trump" in 2017, now performing at a Trump supporting inauguration party.
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Welp, this is gonna be fun today. Needed to be said.
The Babylon Bee - Bad Timing: Kilmar Abrego Garcia Honored With MS-13 'Employee Of The Month' Award:
https://babylonbee.com/news/bad-timing-kilmar-abrego-garcia-honored-with-ms-13-employee-of-the-month-award/
Watching people attempt to "unskew" polls conducted by all walks of this industry—ranging from Nate Cohn at The New York Times to Spencer Kimball at Emerson College to Tim Malloy at Quinnipiac—all to deny Donald Trump's gains against Joe Biden with various voting blocs, is more than a little sad.
The slew of recent polls over two weeks—to include no less than four today alone—have simply confirmed prior findings published from other pollsters who have previously been "unskewed". That includes your's truly and our work at BIG DATA POLL, Mark Penn at Harvard University, Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights, and many others.
I'm temped to equate this with an Occam's razor-like situation. But this debate is more about likelihood than simplicity.
Here's the Presidential Vote Preference Trend for Biden v. Trump going back to August 2020. The Public Polling Project did not begin asking the Rematch Question for 2024 until September 2021. However, we can still make some pretty important and interesting observations.