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When RFK Jr. announced his independent run, the prevailing belief was that he’d take votes away from President Trump. This led many Democrats to exhale a bit, thinking that maybe the Kennedy factor wasn’t a threat after all. Meanwhile, conservatives began to speculate—was this a long-concocted Plan B, C, D, or E designed to sabotage Trump? However, new polls are painting a different picture, suggesting that RFK Jr. might actually be boosting Trump, not Biden.
Only a few polls so far have tested a hypothetical three-way race between Kennedy, Trump and President Biden, but they’ve mostly found the same thing: Kennedy’s presence slightly increases Trump’s margin over Biden. On average, Trump leads Biden by only 0.5 percentage points in national polls when Kennedy isn’t included, but that lead grows to an average of 1.8 points in the three-way matchups.
This latest poll reveals that when Kennedy is added to the mix, Trump outpaces Biden in five out of the six swing states surveyed.
"When Kennedy Jr. is included as an indy candidate, Trump leads Joe Biden in 5 of 6 swing states polled."
AZ
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden 37%
Kennedy Jr 8%
~~
GA
Trump 41% (+3)
Biden 38%
Kennedy Jr 8%
~~
MI
Trump 40% (+2)
Biden 38%
Kennedy Jr 7%
~~
PA
Trump 39% (=)
Biden 39%
Kennedy Jr… https://t.co/KyaYzAyuTR pic.twitter.com/O2awWDc4Js— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 15, 2023
Democrats are now in panic mode. Meathead is even ringing Kennedy and chewing him out.
Bobby Kennedy Jr.’s announcement to run as an Independent is a dangerous and cynical move by wealthy Republicans to put Trump back in the WH. I talked with Bobby and told him that what he is doing could destroy American Democracy. He didn’t care.
— Rob Reiner (@robreiner) October 9, 2023
Here’s the bottom line: Trump’s base is rock-solid, while Biden’s is anything but. If the Dems decide to run Biden again, his disillusioned voters—and there are plenty—might just find it easier to ease their conscience by not voting for someone with dementia for the second election in a row. Of course, this poll—and others like it—doesn’t account for things like bursting pipes in the dead of night or truckloads of “newly discovered” ballots snuck in through the back door, so it’s anybody’s guess what will happen.
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