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During the second (pointless) GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, the candidates were awkwardly clamoring for attention, completely in denial about President Trump’s staggering lead. But Fox News’ Dana Perino rained on everyone’s parade when she said this: If everyone stays in, Trump takes the nomination, plain and simple. To be honest, Trump will take the nomination, whether they all stay in or not.

The “consolidation theory” is yet another pipe dream, according to expert pollster Richard Baris:

Here we go, again.

The “consolidation” argument is less true today than it was in 2016, when it also was not true.

In case people missed those tables on the crosstabs, Donald Trump crushes the field 70-30 to 80-20 head to head, candidate-depending. Otherwise seemingly smart people seem incapable of understanding how basic statistics apply to elections.

He is still beloved by the party, even among those in the shrinking minority who initially choose another candidate. Second choice doesn’t automatically translate to non-Trump candidates during “consolidation”.

That argument is simply incorrect and, frankly, those making it sound a little bit stupid to those of us who know better.

On the debate, notice the same people who said Ron DeSantis dominated the last debate are saying it again. The same goes for Nikki Haley.

It’s a donor and advertiser revenue grift, the ultimate ruling class event. Nobody had a breakout moment and all they did is show voters how a debate can devolve into chaos without Donald Trump on the stage.

Meanwhile, the front runner was talking to UAW workers inside and outside that building, none of whom would ever vote for any of the candidates on that stage last night.

Sorry, but that is the reality the morning after the “debate” and will continue to be, moving forward.

But that doesn’t stop the candidates from living on Fantasy Island. Ron DeSantis tried to counter Dana Perino with this statement: “Polls don’t elect presidents.” But honestly, who’s he kidding? Trump is ahead by over 40 points, for crying out loud. As we edge closer to the Iowa caucuses, no one seems to have a credible strategy to catch up to  Trump, let alone surpass him—unless, of course, Trump winds up behind bars, but let’s face it, that would likely boost his numbers. GOP establishment insiders continue to hold onto this warped delusion that some dark horse will emerge out of nowhere and save the day. But the donors, the real power brokers, have wised up. They’ve not only given up on DeSantis but also have zero interest in entertaining the idea of Glenn Youngkin.

Puck News — Archive Link:

The remaindered class of the Republican presidential field was in survival mode last night in Simi Valley, where seven candidates took the stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to make their case, however weakly, against Donald Trump. They were visibly feral from the start, thirsty for airtime, stomping all over each other for a breakout moment, or a fight, whichever presented itself first.

[…]

Trump’s rivals know that to make it to Iowa, they need to quickly convince donors sitting on the sidelines (or those disillusioned by former Golden Boy DeSantis) that their anemic campaigns deserve an infusion of fresh capital. A strong showing at the debate can do that. Alas, despite being so cash starved, no candidate substantially rose above the pack. “I don’t care about the JV things,” said one major donor. “People aren’t writing big checks off the back of this, no one is inspired.”

Aside from Vivek, the entire field just seems like more of the same old stuff that many right-wing voters have been eager to move past. The Puck piece continues:

And it’s not just DeSantis who is losing the support of the Republican money class. “Their backers’ realize it’s coming to an end soon,” said an advisor to major donors. “It was totally apparent, when they were talking over each other and trying to slam each other.” Soon, the candidates will have to disclose their Q3 fundraising totals before the third debate, in Miami, which is when we’ll really learn who’s running on jet fumes and who has the juice.

The numbers are so dull and uninspiring, that Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Tim Scott, and Burgum haven’t even qualified for the next GOP debate, and likely won’t. But that’s okay, the debates don’t matter anyway. Puck goes on:

If the debates are supposed to be an exercise in consolidating around one candidate in a heavyweight match against Trump, then they’re not working. It’s not just because there haven’t been clear winners of the first two debates. As Michael Scherer recently noted, even if you combined the polling of all seven candidates on the stage into one person, that person would still be losing to Trump by 20 points.

Sure, if there was only one candidate against Trump, money would surely pile in from the likes of the Koch network and the deepest-pocketed anti-Trump donors. But alas this seems unlikely, and not simply because no candidate has emerged so victorious from a debate that they’ve started substantially stealing support from the others on stage. This Hail Mary consolidation argument was made in 2016, too, but the hypothesis remains unproven.

At the very least, it’s boldly presumptuous to assume that if DeSantis were to drop out his supporters would rally around Haley or Scott instead of just flocking to Trump. “I don’t know that there was much said on the stage last night that would shake the people who were with Trump from not being with him,” said a longtime party aide. “It’s possible that there are soft leaning voters towards Trump, maybe an Iowa or New Hampshire voter who found Christie’s line that Trump is disrespecting the voters by not showing up compelling. It’s just so not close. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be.”

And then there’s the Glenn Youngkin pipe dream that some desperate TDS stooges like John Bolton and Bill Barr are pushing. However, the depressed donors have realized that the Youngkin idea is just a fairytale. The Puck piece goes on:

If you want to know just how disappointed donors are with the current batch of candidates, you can see it in the latest crop of trial balloon stories about Glen Youngkin parachuting into the primary race after Virginia’s midterm elections. It wasn’t lost on anyone that the day after the debate, Robert Costa landed an op-ed piece at his old stomping grounds, The Washington Post, channeling the billionaire lovefest for Youngkin from the likes of Tom Peterffy and Rupert Murdoch, who are pushing him to make a late entry and save the old G.O.P. establishment from the current crop of bozos. Costa reports that “alarmed Republicans” are attending a “Red Vest Retreat” next month, where they plan to pressure him to enter the race. His piece quotes the top shelf of establishment Republicans, from John Bolton to Bill Barr, who seem high on Youngkin.

[…]

“There’s nothing that would change the race with the Youngkin candidacy that isn’t being offered by the other candidates. It’s not like Glenn Youngkin is going to get in the race and a significant number of Trump voters are going to say ‘He’s the guy we’re missing.’ And he’s not going to take from all of the rest of the candidates, especially not from the likes of Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. For Youngkin to get into the race, he needs to peel off 20 percent of Trump’s share and get all of the candidates’ voters. ”

Sure, it’s all well and good for Youngkin, who is term-limited and can draft off the chatter, keeping his name out there and giving him a reason to keep flirting with donors. “The Youngkin chatter feels planted and planned out because we’re so disappointed that DeSantis isn’t the clear alternative,” said an Iowa operative. “It helps Youngkin’s brand, but I hope this isn’t consultants trying to make a couple bucks.”

Former WI Governor Scott Walker knew when it was time to get out of the race, and he’s urging others to take his lead.

So, what does Trump have to say about all of this? A lot, actually.

Trump has shattered the field in spectacular fashion. What remains in his wake is a blood-soaked battlefield strewn with the writhing carcasses of the establishment elite, their last shreds of power brutally torn away…

Read the full piece at Puck here. Archive link is here.

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