Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Has Gift for Joe Biden

After months of speculation that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could undermine President Joe Biden's reelection bid, it appears he might not be looking to play spoiler to the president after all.

In exclusive comments to Newsweek on Monday, the Democratic presidential hopeful and heir to the Kennedy political dynasty said his primary challenge to Biden will not evolve into a third-party bid for the presidency. Kennedy continues to baselessly accuse his party of conspiring to protect Biden from primary challengers as the president faces a tough re-election fight in 2024.

Asked if he would consider an independent run for the presidency, Kennedy's response was blunt: "No."

"I'm running as a Democrat," he said. "I won't run independent."

Kennedy staying out of the general election is good news for Biden, according to experts.

"It's another reason not to be complacent about all these efforts by Republican and Republican-backed and Republican-adjacent groups to weaken Biden in any way they can," Bill Kristol, a longtime Republican consultant and a front man for the "Never Trump" movement, said during a Zoom call for Third Way's supporters this week. "And they think, maybe correctly, that Robert Kennedy Jr.—he's well-funded, if he gets a lot of money and can get 25 percent of the vote in New Hampshire or something—that'll hurt Biden a little bit in the general."

Newsweek reached out to the Biden campaign via email for comment.

Kennedy, though a longshot for the nomination, still enjoys considerable popularity among Democratic primary voters despite his deeply documented embrace of conspiracy theories that analysts see as incompatible with the party's voters.

Kennedy boasts a net favorability rating 35 percentage points higher than Biden's among more than 2,000 registered voters surveyed in a Harvard/Harris poll in July. And while Biden remains well-liked within his party, several polls have shown Kennedy getting double-digit support among likely Democratic primary voters, showing at least some appetite within the party for another option.

Kennedy has also found an enthusiastic audience among the conservative pundit and activist class. His campaign has earned the support of GOP-aligned political action committees and news networks in the form of financial support and plaudits on late-night news shows. Some personalities on right-wing networks like Fox News have spoken favorably of Kennedy's platform, even explicitly expressing a desire for him to mount an independent challenge for the presidency to eat into Biden's vote share.

"I think he should run as a third-party candidate because I do think he would win," Fox News host Greg Gutfeld said on a July 26 episode of "The Five."

In the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 election cycle released this week, Biden and former President Donald Trump—the clear Republican frontrunner at this point in the race—are in a dead heat for the presidency, with each polling at 43 percent.

Kennedy's commitment to not run as an independent is a needed boon for Biden, who is anticipated to face caustic challenges from multiple fronts in 2024 from the right as well as the center. Biden's low favorability ratings have also made him susceptible to attacks from his own party. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that 10 percent of voters are unsure whom to vote for or were ready to support another candidate.

And while a separate Quinnipiac College poll released July 19 shows Biden to be the clear preference in a pure head-to-head matchup with Trump, nearly half of those surveyed said they would be willing to consider supporting a third-party candidate—indicating widespread discontent among the current electorate.

While polling from Monmouth University in July showed that Biden could win regardless of a third-party challenge, internal surveys from No Labels, an organization mounting their own third-party fight against Biden, found that a third-party appeal to the middle would likely draw more Democratic-leaning voters than it would Republican ones, helping clear the way for a Republican victory next November.

"With neither President Biden nor former President Trump knocking it out of the park on favorability, almost half of the country would consider another option," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a news release announcing the findings. "No specific name for the candidate, no specific designation for the party, but it is a vivid indication that for many voters, the status quo is a no-go."

And those voters could have plenty of options.

While early, Green Party candidate Cornel West has already proved a galvanizing influence on the Democratic Party's left flank, with the promise of a progressive challenge to Biden. He has the potential to strip Biden of a united base of support against Trump and is proving to be a divisive figure among Democrats concerned about their ability to retain control of the Oval Office.

"I think just right now, given the Electoral College, it's very difficult to square the very real threat of a Republican presidency...[with] the risk of giving up the very small margin of electoral votes needed to ensure that President Biden wins," New York progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in remarks this week downplaying the prospects of a West candidacy.

Those seeking to thwart the prospects of Republican victory in 2024 agree.

"[West] will get a miniscule number of votes, just as [former Green Party candidates] Jill Stein and Ralph Nader did," Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at the center-left think tank Third Way told Newsweek. "[...]They'll get a tiny number of votes, but they'll mostly be Biden votes, and in a close election, that could make the difference."