Few economists bite the bullet that if immigration is good for the countries gaining people, emigration is bad for the countries losing people.
There is a war of rich on poor: Depriving developing countries of the human capital they need to develop while simultaneously depriving them of cheap energy in name of environmentalism.
Interesting thread on this in the case of Eastern Europe:
It's been over 30 years since the transition from Communism!
Every relative gain Eastern Europe makes compared to the West is offset by losses due to depopulation.
People who take bad institutions as fixed and immutable are part of the problem.
It is outlier individuals that change less succesful countries into more succesful countries over time through reforming dysfunctional institutions and founding functional ones.
Take those outliers away and the institutions as well as the countries remain broken.
Of course emigration is better for the people that leave. But even with the most extreme cases case 60-70% of the people stay. All of those people are worse off.
The idea that emigration will discipline a country to have better government or institutions is also a common assumption with no evidence.
If it doesn't pressure California to work better within the US why would it make Ukraine or Romania better?
It is of course fair to say personal rights are more important than economic development. But then let's be intellectually honest and make that argument.
Pretending this situation isn't damaging for underdeveloped economies and the people that live there does not safeguard anyone's rights.
I'm also dismayed how many people are quick to slander prosperus and free places like Poland, Czechia, or Estonia as Communist gulags or shitholes.
Eastern Europeans need to understand that Westerners will never respect us no matter what we do.
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Brazil might be the world’s largest contiguous breadbasket. The country is vast, warm, and fertile, with many rivers, and Brazil is unsurprisingly one of the biggest exporters of cash crops.
Brazil’s 200 million people get 64% of electricity from hydropower!
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Brazil’s problem is that it is a highly decentralized country where elites consistently prioritize costly political battles over development of the economy and institutions.
Brazil has a long history of rebellions, military coups, and, today, politics via the justice system
Unlike Western defense co.’s, China’s state-owned enterprises get most of their revenue from civilian business!
This is a legacy of Deng, who corporatized arms factories and directed them to make consumer goods, in hopes expertise and technology would build up faster.
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Today, China still lags behind the US and Russia in military technological sophistication.
China relies on Russia & Europe for designs & expertise, especially for aircraft and naval engines. The SOEs make incremental progress and can scale production, but no breakthroughs.
Egypt has a lackluster economy but plays an outsized role in global trade because it hosts and runs the Suez Canal.
Over $1 trillion passes through Suez each year, about 12% of global trade. The canal is especially key to trade between Europe and Asia.
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Because of Suez, players in Europe, Asia, and Russia have an interest in keeping Egypt stable.
But they don’t necessarily have an interest in el-Sisi, Egypt’s military strongman since 2013. Another military strongman could always depose the current one.