How RFK Jr. could beat Biden in Iowa caucus, New Hampshire primary for 2024 presidential election

President Biden may be forced to keep his name off the ballot in Iowa and New Hampshire if the traditionally early presidential nominating states don’t move their voting dates back to comply with the Democratic Party’s new primary calendar. 

By doing so, the 80-year-old president risks suffering two humiliating defeats to his top opponent – Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – early in the nominating process.

The Biden campaign, according to Axios, is indicating the president won’t be listed in Iowa and New Hampshire if they vote before South Carolina, which the Democratic National Committee voted to move ahead of Iowa as the first-in-the-nation Democratic primary.

Biden backed the DNC plan to move the Palmetto State primary to Feb. 3, 2024, insisting that a more diverse electorate should have greater influence in picking the party’s standard-bearer. 

South Carolina’s population is about 62% white, while Iowa’s is about 83% white and New Hampshire’s is about 87% white, according to the 2020 census.

Under the new arrangement, Nevada and New Hampshire would hold their caucuses and primaries three days after South Carolina, with Georgia due up Feb. 13 and Michigan following on Feb. 27.

Shifting back the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries would require changing state laws – a tall task – and officials in both states have signaled they may defy the DNC’s orders, which could result in the party stripping them of their national convention delegates. 

New Hampshire state law allows the secretary of state to set the primary date, but that date must be seven days or more ahead of any other state’s primary. 

The GOP-led Granite State legislature and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu both oppose changing state laws to accommodate Democrats. 

Similarly, while the Iowa Democratic Party can set the caucus date, state law requires that it be held no later than the fourth Monday in February (Feb. 26, 2024) and at least eight days before any other state’s nominating contest. 

“Iowa does not have the luxury of conducting a state-run primary, nor are Iowa Republicans likely to support legislation that would establish one,” Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Rita Hart said in a statement after the DNC vote. “Our state law requires us to hold precinct caucuses before the last Tuesday in February, and before any other contest.”

If Iowa and New Hampshire can’t move back their races and Biden isn’t on the ballot in those states, some Democrats have floated a write-in campaign for the president, according to Axios. 

Kennedy Jr., the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son of former Democratic presidential candidate and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, is polling at 20% among Democrat and Democrat-leaning voters, according to a May CNN poll, compared to Biden’s 60% and self-help guru Marianne Williamson’s 8%. 

Jim Messina, former President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, told Axios that even if Biden loses Iowa and New Hampshire, it won’t impact his chances at winning the party’s nomination. 

“Even if a candidate is going to win the first — mythical first states of Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s not going to matter,” Messina said.